PREDICTED BUDGET MODEL v0.1.0-alpha
q50 · MEDIAN
$80.6K
$80,615q30 · LOW
$44.5K
30% cost lessq70 · HIGH
$158K
70% cost lessDISTRIBUTION · USD
What comparable games actually cost
ATTRIBUTION
What's driving the number
Each feature's multiplicative effect on the median estimate, sorted by magnitude. Bars are clipped at ±2× for legibility.
- Core team size 4 ×2.92
- Game length 10h ×1.95
- Self-published yes ÷1.30
- Release year 2027 ÷1.27
- Multiplayer yes ×1.19
- Subtitle languages 8 ×1.04
- Managers / leads 0 ×1.00
- 2D/3D 3D ×1.00
- Engine Unity ×1.00
- Audio languages 0 ×1.00
- Co-development no ×1.00
REALITY CHECK
Your envisioned budget
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NEAREST NEIGHBOURS
Comparable titles
ALPHA · LOCKED
Coming after alpha
Nearest-neighbour comparable titles will unlock when the dataset moves out of alpha.
Q&A
Frequently asked
How does this tool work? ▸
A quantile regression model trained on a curated panel of games of all scopes returns a full distribution (q10 through q90) given your inputs. Coefficients are fit independently at each quantile, then aggregated to a predicted distribution.
What data is the model trained on? ▸
200+ published games released between 2014 and 2025. For each, we collected scope and team features (tags, 2D/3D, solo/multi, publishing model, team size, length, engine, localization, etc) and their production budget. Budget figures come from press reports, post-mortems, court filings, and private disclosures we can't name.
When are predictions less reliable? ▸
Here are few known limits of our predictions: (i) Niche engines (Godot, GameMaker) have small samples. (ii) Large AAA productions are statistical outliers by nature, and outliers are hard to predict. (iii) IP licensing costs are invisible to the model. (iv) Country specific labor costs are not taken into account here.
Why a distribution instead of a single number? ▸
Two studios making similar games rarely spend the same amount. Salary bands, location, process maturity, crunch tolerance, outsourcing strategy; all of those are invisible to us (for now, as we are working on the location and salary topics), and any of them can swing the budget significantly. A single-number estimate would feel reassuring but lie about its precision. The distribution surfaces that real-world variance more honestly.