Most profitability figures in the industry come from surveys of studios or from a few public successes. We estimate the development budget and net Steam revenue of more than 100,000 games, so we can measure break-even and hit rates across the whole market.
Content
A PDF report in English, with:
- Break-even rates by genre, budget and production scope.
- Return and outcome dispersion by genre: do riskier genres pay more?
- How concentrated revenue is, and what it means for a single game.
- Three strategies (maximise the odds of surviving, aim for a hit, diversify a portfolio) and when to choose each.
- The effect of a studio's track record on a game's performance.
- The effect of working with a publisher on a game's performance.
- How fast games pay back their budget.
The licence covers internal use for your whole company.
Method & data
Budgets are development budgets (marketing excluded) estimated within our Production Modeling research. Revenue is estimated net Steam revenue, after Steam's cut, sales taxes and refunds.
FAQ
When do pre-orders open? ▸
Soon. Leave your email on this page and we'll tell you as soon as they do.
When will I receive the report? ▸
By email on release, planned for February 2027.
What if the release slips? ▸
You can ask for a refund at any time before release. If the report is not out by 31 March 2027, we offer every buyer a refund.
Can my colleagues read it? ▸
Yes. The licence covers internal use across your whole company.
Do I get an invoice, and how is VAT handled? ▸
Paddle, our reseller, charges the order, handles VAT and sends your invoice.